Former Rep. George Santos settles $35,000 CFTC case and accepts three-year ban for alleged manipulation of Kalshi trades tied to his State of the Union plans via social posts.
Major retail brokerages including tastytrade, Robinhood, and moomoo are rapidly expanding CFTC-regulated event contracts, giving traders seamless access to binary outcomes on economic data, commodities, and crypto prices in 2026.
After the World Cup, prediction market open interest dropped 20 percent while sports trading fell nearly 70 percent, exposing a structural fragility that challenges the long-term viability of event-driven platforms.
In a landmark move, Novig lands the first-ever exclusive multi-year sponsorship as the official prediction market partner of an MLB franchise, featuring stadium signage and broadcast branding for sports traders.
In a swift move, the CFTC sought an emergency temporary restraining order to stop state actions from disrupting federally regulated event contract trading, heightening the fierce battle for market authority.
IG Group strikes a major deal to acquire Underdog for up to $1.3 billion, positioning itself as a leader in prediction markets while expanding access for traders and accelerating growth.
Robinhood generated $156 million from event contracts in the second quarter, surpassing crypto revenue for the first time and contributing to a record $1.31 billion total as traders executed 13.6 billion contracts overall.
Binance.US CEO Stephen Gregory revealed bold plans at the Rare Evo conference to apply for a CFTC DCM license in August, targeting regulated event contracts as a key expansion move.
Public comments on the CFTC’s proposed event-contract rules expose a fierce split: prediction-market operators push for federal clarity on sports contracts while states, leagues, and a Dodd-Frank architect demand withdrawal.
Long-dated prediction market prices understate true probabilities as locked capital earns nothing until settlement. This overlooked time-value distortion, known as settlement discounting, changes how distant event contracts should be read.
