High-stakes trading surges on the 2028 presidential election winner market as JD Vance clings to a narrow lead while Gavin Newsom and Marco Rubio close in fast, reshaping the odds in real time.
Eric Swalwell resigned from Congress on April 13, 2026, amid sexual misconduct allegations. Prediction markets reacted instantly, pushing the “out by May 31” contract to 100% probability within minutes.
Democrats now trade at 85% odds of flipping House control in the 2026 midterms on prediction markets, as traders pour millions into contracts signaling a major power shift.
As 2028 looms, prediction markets explode with record volumes: JD Vance and Gavin Newsom dominate presidential odds while Eric Swalwell surges in California’s gubernatorial race, reshaping campaigns with real-money foresight.
Prediction markets are heating up for the 2026 Texas Senate race, projecting a potential showdown between Republican AG Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, with Republicans favored in this red-state battle.
Kalshi and AP News are forming a partnership to exchange election results forecasting and data providing what may be the premier election data on the market beginning with the 2026 midterm federal elections.
As the 2026 California gubernatorial election heats up, prediction markets favor Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell at 53-56% odds to succeed Gavin Newsom. Key challengers include Matt Mahan, Tom Steyer, and Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, amid top-two primary speculation and regional voter dynamics.
As the 2024 dust settles, prediction markets buzz with Gavin Newsom leading the 2028 Democratic nomination at 27-31% odds, outpacing Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8-10%. Trading volumes exceed $50M, signaling post-election party shifts toward centrism in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.
