Just when you thought any hope of passage of the Clarity Act over the next 12 months was lost, things have a way of changing suddenly.
Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket sharply lifted Clarity Act odds on Monday after Senate Republicans released updated text and reports said President Donald Trump accepted most of a tougher ethics package. Polymarket priced the chance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is signed into law in 2026 at nearly 30%, up from 12% earlier this month. That was the highest reading since early August.
Kalshi told a similar story across later deadlines. The contract on whether a crypto market-structure bill becomes law before Oct. 1, 2027 jumped to 64% overnight from 26% on Thursday, then settled near 53%. Passage before July 1 rose to 53% after touching 69%. The before-April rung roughly doubled to 45%. Traders were buying a better procedural path into Tuesday’s 60-vote cloture test, not a completed statute.
Much work remains after any first vote. Cloture only ends the filibuster on the motion to proceed. Amendments, a later Senate finish, House reconciliation, and a presidential signature would still sit ahead.
Why Prices Jumped Overnight
The rebound followed a weekend fight over conflict-of-interest rules. Several Democrats and Republican Sen. Thom Tillis had refused to supply votes without tighter limits on senior officials’ digital-asset holdings. According to reports, Trump agreed to about 80% of that ethics package.
The new draft would bar senior officials from issuing their own digital assets and force divestiture, while letting state attorneys general sue to enforce the provision. Those changes are the possible last rewrite before Tuesday.
White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt then told a Solana Policy Institute audience he felt “very good” about the vote and called the text the “best and final offer,” adding that the 60-vote question is now “a political calculation, not a policy calculation.”
That combination of new text, a White House concession, and a public confidence campaign explains the new and optimistic bidding on Clarity Act passage timelines. It has yet to reveal itself in a changed Senate vote on the matter.
The Skeptics Are Pricing Different Math
Jaret Seiberg of TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group kept passage this year at 25%. He wrote that the updated ethics language may not be substantive enough for moderate Democrats and that the package was not fully negotiated. Trump, he noted, could still hold crypto exposure through a blind trust, and state AG authority looks narrow.
Seiberg also warned a yes vote could be cast as a personal win for Trump before the November midterms, raising the political cost for Democrats. Meanwhile, banks have intensified a fight over stablecoin rewards. A coalition of state attorneys general urged senators to reject the bill over preemption concerns.
Those objections run up against public pressure from the other direction. Sen. Cynthia Lummis has argued the moment to get Clarity passed will not return for years. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called the bill essential for the continued growth of the American economy.
The gap between Kalshi’s mid-50s on some 2027 rungs, Polymarket’s nearly 30% for 2026, and Seiberg’s 25% year-end figure is the real signal. Markets are paying up for a chance for cloture and to start real debate. Though floor-vote counters are still assigning a low chance that every later hoop gets cleared. Congressional passage isn’t about good or bad, right or wrong; it’s only about how many votes you have.
Cloture Opens Debate. It Does Not Pass the Bill.
Tuesday’s cloture vote requires 60 senators. Republicans hold 53 seats, so at least seven Democrats or independents must join. If cloture fails, the bill stalls indefinitely. If it succeeds, the Senate can still amend the text and demand more procedural votes before anything returns to the House.
The September 15 vote might produce a vote, a delay, or another rewrite. That warning still holds. Leadership can file cloture and then slip the schedule. A first-vote win can die on a second vote.
Of note, GOP Sens. Susan Collins and John Cornyn appeared undecided as of Monday. That kind of late uncertainty is exactly what event contracts are built to reprice in hours if specific public statements come out.
On a side note: nominations to the CFTC and SEC have not been offered as sweeteners. If the White House wants more Democratic votes after Tuesday, those appointments could still enter the bargaining. Until they do, some senators may have a reason to wait and hold out.
How the Market Ladders Split the Timing Bet
Kalshi’s nested deadlines let traders separate “this year” from “eventually.” The violent overnight bid, then the morning fade, showed up on both venues. We now see prices well above last week’s lows, but off the spike highs.
Polymarket’s single 2026 contract has to crush all of that timing risk into one number. That is why it recovered to nearly 30% without approaching the 80%+ readings seen earlier in the year. Kalshi’s later rungs can stay richer if traders think enactment slips into 2027.
A clean cloture win would likely lift both. A failed or postponed vote would give back a large share of Monday’s gain.
For now, the useful question is narrower than “will the Clarity Act pass?” It is which remaining step the next trade is actually buying: Tuesday’s door, the amendment fight after it, or a signature before Dec. 31.
References
- Krisztian Sandor, CoinDesk: Clarity Act odds surge on prediction markets
- Olivier Acuna, CoinDesk / AP: Trump agrees to stricter ethics rules
- Nikhilesh De, CoinDesk: Revised Clarity Act ethics provision
- Jesse Hamilton, CoinDesk: Clarity Act in limbo as Senate returns
- Traders Union: U.S. crypto bill odds rise as Senate vote nears
- The Block: Patrick Witt feels “very good” ahead of Tuesday vote
- The Block: Where the Clarity Act stands ahead of Tuesday’s vote
- Kalshi crypto market structure contracts
- Polymarket Clarity Act event contracts
- Patrick Witt on X
