Coinbase CFO Alesia Haas used the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference to put a hard number on a product that is outrunning almost everything else on the company’s board. She called prediction markets one of the fastest-growing revenue products in Coinbase’s history and said the line already crossed a $100 million annualized run rate in the second quarter, doubling the pace seen right after launch. Sitting with President and COO Emilie Choi, she described traders moving into weather, politics, and football contracts while Coinbase keeps adding new contract types.
“We are just getting started with prediction markets, but we have seen the ability to take a product, enter the market and see scaling occur,” Haas said. She also sketched a more ambitious destination: contracts tied to corporate KPIs and earnings, separate from ordinary stock moves. That, she said, is the huge growth vector.
How Coinbase Prediction Markets Revenue Doubled After Launch
Coinbase first flagged the $100 million annualized mark after a short live window in the first quarter. Q2 then delivered another surge, with contracts and revenue up 106% quarter over quarter. Haas is repeating the story on the conference circuit because the product is still compounding while spot crypto fees remain a more cyclical revenue source for Coinbase.
She also said the flow has been incremental to Coinbase’s bottom line so far. Traders are adding event contracts rather than simply shifting money away from other Coinbase products. As with other prediction market venues, sports contracts have carried much of the early volume, and crypto binary contracts launched later in the quarter lifted daily active traders and daily revenue versus May. Those binaries let traders take a short-term view on crypto prices without putting up the capital a spot purchase would require.
Early users largely came from accounts Coinbase already had. Estimates are that Coinbase has around 9 million monthly active traders globally. Paid acquisition was not the main engine and therefore not a correlated expense to this new revenue. Existing funded customers started clicking into the new markets, which is why Haas can talk about scaling without sounding like the firm is buying their growth.
Everything Exchange Strategy Turns Event Contracts Into a Fourth Trading Pillar
Coinbase now talks about four retail trading pillars: spot crypto, derivatives, equities, and prediction markets. Haas said traction is starting to show across that set. Bitcoin spot trading, once more than 50% of revenue at the IPO, has fallen to about 10%. That mix shift is the unspoken backdrop to her excitement about event contracts.
Choi framed the same idea as one place to trade any asset at any time and called the wider opportunity a $50 trillion total addressable market. Not exactly a helpful metric for real-world valuations, but we can likely agree the total market size is rather large. After the session, she said the Everything Exchange vision covers derivatives, prediction markets, equities, tokenized assets, and onchain markets.
Goldman Sachs research associate James Yaro, who moderated the chat, later kept a Buy rating and lifted the COIN target to $219. He listed prediction markets among six growth drivers, alongside U.S. perpetual futures, tokenized equities, margin lending, Base, and agentic finance. Haas also put subscription and services revenue at about $2.5 billion annualized and said Coinbase custodies roughly 12% of global onchain assets. Choi’s point follows from that significant base: customers want to trade where their assets already sit, so a new contract type can find volume without a brand-new audience.
We’ve seen similar dynamics with Robinhood recently venturing heavily into prediction markets, using its large pre-existing trader base.
Alesia Haas Wants Corporate KPI Contracts and Deeper Liquidity
Haas’s most ambitious line wasn’t the run-rate figure. It was her picture of markets liquid enough for investors to trade views on corporate KPIs and earnings, distinct from the equity itself. She is describing a future in which a trader can isolate an operating metric instead of buying or selling the whole stock. She is also careful not to oversell the present case. The company is celebrating speed without pretending the book is already deep enough for every use case she named.
Earlier earnings commentary matches that tone. In Q1, Coinbase said the product reached the $100 million annualized mark in March after the first two full months live and called it one of the fastest-scaling products in company history. Haas said that the firm wanted to keep investing in derivatives and prediction markets even when broader conditions were softer. This clearly signals a long-term commitment to these products.
By Q2, event contracts were the bright spot in a tougher revenue quarter. Binaries tripled daily traders late in the period, and daily revenue on those new contract types ran about four times the May average. The rest of the quarter was mixed, which only makes the new line stand out more.
What Traders and Shareholders Should Watch Next
The near-term calendar is straightforward. Football is already live, politics will stay very busy into the midterms, and Coinbase is still adding contract designs. If corporate KPI markets ever list with real depth, that would mark a second major act beyond sports and binaries. A $100 million annualized line is meaningful for a young product, yet still small against Coinbase’s larger trading and subscription books. The optimistic case is not that event contracts now define the company. The optimistic case is that they doubled quickly, stayed incremental, and give Haas a credible path into new contract families.
Regulation does remain a large variable. Choi said the company is excited about the possibility of the Clarity Act moving in the Senate, yet she also said innovation exemptions can support new products even if that bill stalls. She called Clarity an accelerant, not a gate.
Yaro’s note already treats prediction markets as one significant engine inside the Everything Exchange, not a novelty ticker. That is a change from the days when Coinbase lived or died on bitcoin spot fees. Haas uses the run rate to show the new engines can take Coinbase to a whole new level.
References
- Markets Media, “Coinbase Prediction Markets are Growing Fast”
- Investing.com, Coinbase at Goldman Sachs conference
- Coinbase post quoting Emilie Choi on the Everything Exchange
- Benzinga, Goldman Sachs raises COIN target
- DeFi Rate, Q1 prediction markets run-rate coverage
- The Block, Q2 results and prediction markets doubling
- Coinbase Q2 2026 Earnings AMA w/ Brian Armstrong & Alesia Haas
- Coinbase Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation
- Coinbase Investor Relations events and webcasts
- Business Wire, Coinbase Goldman Sachs conference announcement
