PredictBay exits stealth with over $26.1 billion in paper volume and launches one-minute UP/DOWN markets on Sui’s DeepBook Predict, delivering sub-second settlement for rapid directional trading.
Cantor Fitzgerald opens its 3,000 institutional clients to Kalshi event contracts via block trades, pairing brokerage access with Susquehanna liquidity to unlock larger professional trading scale.
Robinhood’s event contracts revenue surged to $156 million in Q2, more than tenfold growth that overtook crypto and equities as the firm posted a record $1.31 billion in total revenue.
Regulators ordered a full access block on Polymarket after ruling its winner-take-all event contracts constitute illegal gambling, rejecting non-custodial defenses and joining over 30 jurisdictions in restricting the platform for traders.
Novig recorded more than $125 million in notional trading volume during its first week of sports event contracts, outpacing debut figures from Kalshi, Polymarket U.S. and others as baseball and parlays led activity.
Prediction markets priced progressive Francesca Hong a near-lock with 95% odds in the Wisconsin Democratic primary. Moderate David Crowley then pulled a razor-thin upset, testing the accuracy of those forecasts.
JPMorgan ended its core banking relationship with Polymarket in 2025 over regulatory concerns, yet the bank is keeping the door open for a potential IPO underwriting role while residual operational ties continue.
Kalshi launches market-implied GPU compute forward curves for NVIDIA chips while expanding tech IPO contracts, giving traders public signals on AI infrastructure costs and listing timelines amid record spending.
A Washington court has ordered Kalshi to halt most event contracts for state residents, imposing strict geofencing deadlines and potential $120,000 daily penalties while allowing traders to exit existing positions.
Prediction markets can deliver superior collective intelligence, yet current excesses in war bets and insider trading threaten their promise. Smart reforms—bans, stronger rules, and liquidity supports—restore the original vision.
