Retail investors who want equity in two of the largest prediction market trading venues no longer need a venture allocation. The Tema Trading & Prediction Markets ETF, ticker DICE, listed on Cboe on September 9, 2026, with Kalshi and Polymarket as its two largest lines. Combined, those special purpose vehicle stakes sit near 15% of assets, giving public-market buyers indirect ownership while the Securities and Exchange Commission continues to review funds built on event contracts.
Tema President Steve Munroe is selling the launch as an early bet on prediction market sector volume that Bernstein has projected could approach $1 trillion by 2030. Portfolio manager Yuri Khodjamirian is running an actively managed book of 39 names that pairs the private stakes with listed brokers and exchanges. In short, DICE is a wager that the companies operating the order books keep growing, not a trade on any single event market on their platforms. It’s definitely unconventional investing.
How the Private Sleeve Is Built
Kalshi and Polymarket are still closely held, so a regular brokerage account cannot buy their common stock. Tema is routing that exposure through an SPV. The September 9 launch snapshot showed the Kalshi sleeve at 7.34% and the Polymarket sleeve at 7.33%. Two days later, the product page showed each line near 7.55%, still clustered around the ETF’s 15% target.
CEO Maurits Pot noted that Tema marked those positions at about a 10% to 13% discount to the latest private rounds. A later listing above those marks would help the ETF. Until then, SPV interests can be slower to price and harder to exit than listed shares, a risk Tema flags in its own disclosures.
The fund charges 0.75%, or $75 a year on a $10,000 account. That fee reflects the active mandate and the cost of sourcing private paper. DICE does not hold the contracts traders buy on either platform, which is why it could list while other filings that wrap those contracts remain parked at the SEC.
Why the Structure Caught ETF Desks’ Attention
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas flagged DICE as a theme fund rather than an event-contract wrapper. He treated the 15% private sleeve as a straightforward use of the illiquidity bucket thematic funds already employ. Tema’s launch post on X used the same math and warned traders to read the SPV risk language before buying. Though they don’t have much choice in that disclosure regard.
Reuters reported back in May that Tema had filed a thematic vehicle focused on platforms and trading companies, not contract outcomes. The Commission has delayed more than two dozen products that would package those outcomes as ETF shares. DICE managed to sidestep that queue. We now have the first listed U.S. fund built around sector growth rather than individual results. The first dedicated sector ETF.
The Rest of the Book
After the two prediction market SPVs, DICE lists holdings in Galaxy Digital, Robinhood Markets, Interactive Brokers, Coinbase Global, Intercontinental Exchange, Circle, IG Group, and Securitize. Those names pull DICE into brokerage, crypto trading, exchange data, and dollar-stable settlement.
ICE already holds a strategic stake in Polymarket, so the ETF stacks public ICE shares on top of the private Polymarket SPV. Robinhood has been folding event contracts into a larger trading app, which is why Tema is treating HOOD as part of the same basic playbook. Coinbase and Circle sit nearby because around-the-clock settlement keeps showing up wherever those contracts trade.
Tema first tested private Kalshi paper in its Durable Quality ETF, TOLL, and laid out the thesis in a May research note and a companion press release. That earlier fund used Kalshi as one quality compounder. DICE is different: it pairs private leaders with the prediction market category itself.
What Can Still Go Wrong
A 15% sleeve in two private companies cuts both ways. Marks can sit still between funding rounds, and an SPV will not trade like a listed stock in a risk-off session. A regulatory hit that compresses either private valuation will show up in DICE even if Robinhood and Coinbase keep quoting every weekday.
The fund is also a blunt instrument for contract volume. Brokers and exchanges in the book make money in other businesses, so a quiet week in event contracts will not automatically sink the ETF. A record month on Kalshi will not pass through dollar-for-dollar when each SPV is still only about one-seventh of assets.
Pot’s discount-to-last-round comment is useful if IPOs arrive rich. It also means the current book is not marked at the headline private valuations making the rounds. For traders who want the platforms rather than the contracts, DICE is finally a listed door in. The price of admission is SPV friction, a 0.75% fee, and an 85% sleeve that still lives in public brokers and exchanges.
References
- Tema Trading & Prediction Markets ETF (DICE) product page
- Tema Launches Trading & Prediction Markets ETF (DICE) — Markets Insider / GlobeNewswire
- Kalshi and Polymarket Aren’t Public. You Can Still Buy Them Through an ETF. — Barron’s
- Tema ETFs launch post for $DICE — X
- You Can’t Bet on the Election with This ETF, But You Can Bet on the Betting Boom — Benzinga
- Prediction Markets Legal Timeline 2026 — RotoWire
- Tema Durable Quality ETF (TOLL) Adds Kalshi — Tema press release
- Kalshi: A Durable Quality Company — Tema insights
- Tema plans new ETF on prediction market themes — Reuters
- Tema ETFs Launches the First Prediction Market ETF — Casino.org
