Traders have put more than $31 million into year-end 2026 crypto price-target contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi, with the heaviest flow in Ethereum, Solana, and Zcash. The contracts ask different questions. One set pays if a coin touches a level before January. The other pays only if that coin remains at or above that level when the year closes.
On September 26, Ethereum traded near $2,689, Solana near $121.16, and Zcash near $1,543. From those spot levels, the books priced an 11.6% Ethereum lift to $3,000 as a majority case, a modest Solana bounce as more likely than a blow-off, and a Zcash run to $2,000 as a thin, jumpy debate.
The money is not even. Ethereum dominates. Solana is a distant second. Zcash is the shallow book that can reprice on a handful of tickets, which may scare off many traders.
Ethereum year-end price targets hold the deepest book
Polymarket’s 2026 Ethereum target market held about $16.12 million in weekend volume. Traders there assigned roughly 70% odds that Ether would touch $3,000 before year-end. That is only an 11.6% move from $2,689, and it is the clean majority case.
Higher rungs fade fast. The $3,500 contract sat near 36%. The $4,000 line was about 17%. At $5,000, the implied chance was 6%, and at $10,000, it was 1%. Downside stayed open too: about 35% at $2,250, 15% at $2,000, and 5% at $1,000.
Kalshi’s year-end Ethereum market was quieter and more conservative. Volume was about $12.17 million, with a displayed forecast near $2,720. Closing brackets clustered in the mid-to-high $2,000s, including about 14% for a finish between $2,500 and $2,749.99.
Solana year-end contracts price a bounce, not a melt-up
With SOL near $121, Polymarket assigned about 60% odds to a $140 touch before January on a book of roughly $2.08 million to $2.10 million. That is a 16% rally. Higher strikes thinned quickly: about 33% for $160, 19% to 21% for $180, and about 12% for $200.
The downside still has a bid. Weekend coverage put a return to $90 near 30% and a fall to $80 near 18%. Traders are paying for a bounce and for the chance that bounce fails.
Kalshi’s Solana contract uses a year-end close, not a wick. Its forecast sat near $128.90, with 71% odds of finishing at $100 or higher, 34% at $150 or higher, and 27% at $200 or higher. Read the settlement rule before copying any of those numbers across venues.
Zcash is the thin book on the year-end board
Zcash was near $1,543 on September 26. Polymarket’s $2,000 touch opened the weekend near 41%, and later marks ran as high as about 49% to 53%. TokenPost put volume on that event near $626,556, far below Ethereum and well below Solana.
The two-way market is the tell. A $700 downside contract carried 34% odds. A $500 line sat at 22%. A collapse to $100 still had a 4% bid. Traders are paying for a squeeze and a washout at the same time.
Kalshi’s year-end Zcash close above $1,000 showed 73% odds even though spot already traded over that line. That can be a crash hedge. It can also be noise. The event had only $3,679 in volume and a wide spread. A few tickets can move this book in a way Ethereum’s $16 million market will not allow.
Consequently, treating 41% and 53% as one Zcash forecast is a mistake. Those are sequential marks on a shallow contract.
Touch odds and close odds are different trades
Polymarket’s “what price will it hit in 2026” events generally pay if the asset trades the level at any point in the window. Kalshi’s “price at the end of 2026” events pay on the settlement close. A wick can resolve a touch contract and leave a close-at contract worthless.
That is why Ethereum can show roughly 70% odds of tagging $3,000 and a Kalshi close-at forecast near $2,720 at the same time. The numbers are not fighting. They answer different questions: a high-touch probability is not a high chance of finishing the year at that level.
Bitcoin.com put the six ETH, SOL, and ZEC events at about $31.22 million in weekend volume. Polymarket’s 2026 Ethereum target is among the largest live crypto events, with Kalshi’s Ethereum year-end book near $12.17 million.
A December expiry locks capital for months, and short-dated up-or-down contracts now compete for the same flow. Yet the year-end ladder still does something those short contracts cannot. It forces a paid view on where ETH, SOL, and ZEC stand when 2026 ends.
References
- Bitcoin.com News, “Ethereum, Solana and Zcash Face Wild Year-End Price Predictions”
- The Currency Analytics, “Ethereum Sits at $2,689 While $31M in Prediction Bets Pile Up”
- TokenPost, “Prediction Markets Give Ether 68% Odds of Reaching $3,000 in 2026”
- PolymarketTrader, Ethereum odds board
- CoinTribune, “Ethereum, Solana And Zcash Face Key Targets Before 2027”
- PolymarketTrader, “What price will Solana hit in 2026?”
- HOGE Wire, “2026 Price Targets: What the Market Already Priced”
- PredictionOdds, Crypto prediction markets ranking
- CryptoNews.net reprint of the Bitcoin.com year-end targets report
- Ground News aggregation of the year-end targets coverage
