Fractional Kelly Betting for Prediction Markets: A Practical Sizing Guide
Finding an edge is only half the job. The other half is deciding how much to actually bet — and…
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How to Build a Base Rate Before You Bet on Any Prediction Market
Before you ever look at what a prediction market is pricing, you need your own number to compare it against….
Kalshi Advances Perpetual Futures Expansion into Metals, FX, and Energy Markets Through Regulatory Talks
Kalshi is advancing regulatory talks to expand perpetual futures into metals, foreign exchange, and energy markets. The move builds on its successful crypto contracts and aims to give traders greater flexibility through indefinite holding and high leverage.
Polymarket Pushing Hard on Reputation Building After U.S. Market Re-Entry
After years offshore, Polymarket has launched a campaign to re-enter the domestic market by strengthening compliance through key hires and influencer partnerships, aiming to rebuild trader trust amid rising volumes.
Michael Burry Directs Massive Capital into Online Gambling Stocks While Avoiding Prediction Market Platforms
Michael Burry, famous as the 2008 housing market short seller featured in the film The Big Short, is now turning rather positive on sports betting stocks.
Kalshi Love Island Markets Fuel Record Growth in Female Prediction Market Traders
Kalshi’s Love Island markets are transforming trader demographics, drawing women at three times the rate of men and doubling the platform’s female trader base over the past year.
Whales and Thin Liquidity: The Hidden Vulnerabilities Eroding Trust in Prediction Markets
As prediction markets boom with billions in weekly volume, powerful whale traders are exploiting thin liquidity to manipulate outcomes, raising alarms about eroding trust in these forecasting tools.
10 Common Mistakes New Traders Make (And How to Avoid Them)
All new traders lose money along the way. That is not a scare tactic, it’s the nature of learning curves….
Are Prediction Markets More Accurate Than Polls?
Election polling, economic polling, and public opinion polling have been around for decades, and have defined our outlook on elections,…
Decentralized Oracles vs. Centralized Resolution: Uncovering a Trust Crisis Plaguing Crypto Prediction Markets
As prediction markets attract billions in trading volume, decentralized oracles promise impartial resolution through token voting. However, concentrated power among large holders creates trust vulnerabilities that centralized alternatives largely sidestep.