Traders on major prediction markets intensified activity after President Trump announced a new blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, driving Brent crude prices up nearly 10% in a single day.
Traders have driven prediction market volume for the 2026 FIFA World Cup to a record $5.81 billion across 52 contracts, with France holding a 39% chance of winning the title.
Prediction markets were designed to deliver sharper forecasts than traditional methods. But as sports betting claims the vast majority of volume on platforms like Kalshi, their forecasting power is slipping away.
What Are Resolution Criteria? Resolution criteria are the exact rules that determine how a prediction market settles — who decides…
Traders celebrated confirmed wins for World Cup tickets through ADI Predictstreet, FIFA’s official partner for the 2026 tournament, only to face non-delivery and mounting frustration as the complaints spread quickly.
Emerging climate prediction markets create direct financial incentives for accurate forecasting, encouraging traders to update beliefs with new data and fostering deeper public understanding of climate science than traditional messaging.
Polymarket has rolled out its Combos feature, allowing traders to bundle multiple legs into single high-payout positions as trading volumes climb on Norway versus England and other World Cup fixtures.
The more information available to a market, the more accurate that market will be. But what if that information is private or privileged and utilized for advantage by insiders?
Polymarket has submitted a key filing to become a futures commission merchant, opening doors to margin trading on event contracts. Traders could soon control larger positions with reduced upfront capital.
In a significant compliance move, Goldman Sachs bans employees from prediction market bets on finance, politics, and geopolitics while allowing only sports and entertainment trades to avoid conflicts of interest.
