Prediction markets tout the “wisdom of crowds”, the endless swatch of objective analysts applying logic and rationality to eventually circle around a highly accurate prediction forecast. But what if that swath isn’t so objective or rational?
A derivative market formed about the odds of this primary market at a certain market and time: Will the Yes odds for “Jesus Christ Return Before 2027 reach 5% of higher on February 17th between 12 AM and 1 AM?” This highly specific, derivative prediction attracted $665,000 in volume.
Much to the angst of many sports media commentators, one of the most recent event prediction outcomes on Kalshi was Antetokounmpo’s own fate leading up to the NBA trading deadline.
