In out-of-the-blue news, Kevin Costner is opening his Aspen-located Dunbar Ranch for a closed gathering of commercial gaming chiefs, tribal leaders, and prediction-market operators. Federal and state courts are still actively fighting over sports event contracts that licensed books treat as wagers and CFTC-regulated venues treat as swaps. Costner states that he has “no skin in the game,” only friends on both sides and a room he thinks they need.
“Like any business, I sometimes find myself in a situation where you find that you need some help,” he said. This time he is offering the help: three nights away from a “57th floor” meeting so people cannot bolt for a jet after one hard hour. In a letter obtained by InGame, Costner promised to “give you time, share some meals, and see what’s possible,” arguing that an idea that fails at dinner can look different at breakfast. Straight out of the grandmother playbook.
He is asking only top decision-makers. The question on the table is blunt: do sports event contracts belong in the gambling landscape, and can every side leave with something worth keeping?
PolyPunter has long predicted that a compromise between prediction market operators and state and tribal officials was a likely outcome for sports prediction markets’ legal future. I must admit, we did not see this coming via the star of Yellowstone and Bull Durham.
Who Is Coming, and Why Costner Put Himself in the Middle
Costner owned a casino in Deadwood for 26 years. He is not a sports trader and says putting money on games “ruins the experience.” Friend and entrepreneur Kasey Thompson walked him through the current standoff, and Costner decided the pressure was building toward a Supreme Court moment. “When I realized it was a pressure situation … I felt like there was a solve [somewhere],” he said.
The invite list includes CEOs from major gaming companies, senior figures from Indian Country, former regulators, and deal advisors. Costner described the advisors as people “with deep experience in gaming, regulation, law, and transactions” who will not represent a side. They are a shared resource if something worth building appears. About 70% of invitees have already answered. He called the plan “unconventional,” then added that those are his favorite things.
Thompson is Costner’s partner on the retreat. He is a high-stakes poker player and a former Pala Interactive executive who in 2023 floated an online sports betting plan that tribal governments opposed. He said he has since left the gambling business. The two men now share a different roster: Big League Wiffle Ball, a 10-team league that launched in 2025. Thompson’s group owns the Boston Harbor Hawks. Costner owns the Los Angeles Naturals. Don’t feel bad if you didn’t know there was a professional whiffle ball league.
Sports Event Contracts, Circuit Splits, and the Fight the Retreat Cannot Dodge
Kalshi listed its first sports event contract ahead of the Super Bowl in 2025, and licensed gaming companies have treated the products as a direct threat ever since. The core legal question is whether those contracts are “swaps” under CFTC rules. If they are, they stay under federal derivatives law only. If they are wagers, states and tribes can tax, license, or ban them.
A second fight is whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state law or the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, which protects Class III exclusivity on tribal land. The circuit courts already disagree. The Third Circuit sided with Kalshi. The Ninth Circuit sided with Nevada, and with California tribes in related injunction fights, a split that could likely lead to a Supreme Court showdown.
State courts have already blocked sports event contracts in Michigan, Nevada, and Washington.
Costner’s invitation letter does not pretend the sides already agree. “Everyone has a position. Everyone has something worth protecting,” he wrote. “But when the stakes are high enough, sometimes, the most important thing you can do is stop talking across the divide, and start talking to each other.”
What Costner Says He Wants From the Nights at Dunbar Ranch
Dunbar Ranch is named for Costner’s lieutenant in Dances with Wolves, a 160-acre compound with multiple houses and a baseball field, built for a large private gathering. Costner calls it a place that “settles your mind.” He once tried to build a Dunbar casino resort in Deadwood; that project never opened. Costner has spent a career selling the idea that a gathering in an unexpected place can change what people think is possible.
Will anything come of the Costner-led powwow? State licensed gaming operators want certainty and tax parity. Tribal governments want sovereignty and respect for Class III exclusivity. Prediction venues want a federal path for sports event contracts that traders already use. Costner is not writing the statute. He is trying to keep the people who could live with a deal in the same house long enough to invent one.
“There’s nothing nefarious about this,” he said. “There are groups that could be terribly affected by a flip of a coin [a Supreme Court decision], and the tribes have always been really important to me.” He closed the letter by saying he does not know where the nights will lead. That, he wrote, is part of the reason to come.
Who says no to Kevin Costner? (No jokes about his previous marriages, please.)
References
- CDC Gaming, “Kevin Costner to host prediction retreat,” Sept. 22, 2026
- Jill R. Dorson, InGame, “If You Build It, They Will Come: Kevin Costner To Host Prediction Retreat,” Sept. 22, 2026
- InGame, Supreme Court as forum for prediction-market sports contracts
- Politico, California sports betting and tribes, Nov. 10, 2023
- Big League Wiffle Ball ownership
- InGame, Nevada decision on event-occurrence contracts
- InGame, New Mexico CFTC response and IGRA preemption questions
- InGame, Ninth Circuit ruling and Supreme Court path
- InGame, Ninth Circuit Kalshi injunction appeal
- CDC Gaming, “Circa’s Stevens rips prediction markets,” Aug. 11, 2026
- Architectural Digest, Kevin Costner homes and Dunbar Ranch
- Associated Press, hospitality firm buys Deadwood land from Costner
