Kazakhstan First Experimental Regulated Event Contracts Overview

Kazakhstan is getting into the prediction market space.

Sergey Lukyanov, chair of the board of directors at Freedom Finance Global PLC, confirmed that the first deals have now occurred on Kazakhstan’s ITS Prediction Market. The trades remain largely experimental because not every eligible client has access yet. The opening contracts ask whether Bitcoin will finish above a set reference level, whether the SPCX ticker tied to SpaceX will clear its threshold, whether the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s base rate will exceed 16.75%, and whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target range will sit above 3.75%.

Trading began on September 8, 2026, during the third annual ITS Ideas conference held as part of Astana Finance Days. Prices move between $0.01 and $0.99 before each contract settles at either $1 or $0. Because the products are still inside a controlled testing regime, volumes have stayed modest while the platform and its intermediaries refine onboarding and settlement processes.

Lukyanov said interest arrived quickly after the presentation. Potential partners reached out, and a significant number of trades were executed on opening day, even as access remained limited. Traders can exit a position before settlement if their view changes, so they do not have to hold until the final outcome.

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Contract Mechanics and Early Trading Activity

Each contract is a binary instrument. Supply and demand set the price between $0.01 and $0.99 until the settlement date; that price reflects the market’s collective view of the likelihood that the stated condition will hold. The contracts are fully funded, with no margin or leverage allowed, so a trader’s maximum loss equals the amount paid.

Kurmet Orazayev, CEO of ITS, called the launch an expansion of what markets already do with asset prices. Traders now have a direct way to express a view on a specific future event, while the market itself gains a running collective assessment of that event. Bitcoin, SpaceX, and the two central-bank rate questions are only the starting set; once the initial group proves stable, traders expect additional contracts tied to other macroeconomic readings and corporate developments.

First-day activity showed traders were willing to price these four questions even with restricted access. The Bitcoin and SPCX contracts let traders take a clean position on those price levels, while the rate contracts isolate the probability of a defined threshold being crossed.

Regulatory Approval and Leadership Views

ITS operates as a multilateral trading facility under the Astana International Financial Center and is licensed by the Astana Financial Services Authority. The Authority’s FinTech Lab approved the event contracts to run under controlled conditions. Vladimir Savov, Managing Director of AFSA’s Financial Markets Office, said the regulator and the ITS team had studied how other financial centers treat derivatives and event-based contracts before the go-ahead.

Savov noted that investor protection stayed a constant focus throughout the review. Representatives of the Astana International Financial Center attended the September 8 launch. Lukyanov later welcomed the decision, saying it widens the set of instruments available inside the financial center and strengthens its ability to draw international interest.

At the Astana Finance Days forum, Lukyanov pointed to venues such as Kalshi and Polymarket as places where traders already buy and sell contracts on event outcomes. He observed that such markets have grown into sizable platforms that attract professional interest and can help manage risk around discrete events. The current testing phase keeps the product narrower than those larger venues, both in client access and in the range of permitted events.

Platform Scale and Path Forward

ITS already supports substantial activity outside the new contracts. In 2025, the platform recorded total trading volume above $14 billion, roughly 70 times the prior year’s figure. More than 1.2 million investors access it through 23 trading members across seven countries. The platform lists more than 3,200 instruments, including U.S.-listed shares, depositary receipts, and ETFs, and runs a nearly 19-hour trading session to cover Asian, European, and U.S. hours.

The event contracts sit on that existing infrastructure, which includes central clearing and a central depository. Because they remain in testing, they have not yet added material volume. Platform leadership has indicated the lineup will grow once the initial set demonstrates stable operation. Additional events tied to macroeconomic releases and corporate developments are expected once the experimental phase ends.

The controlled launch inside the FinTech Lab gives both the platform and the regulator time to observe how the contracts behave before any wider rollout. Meanwhile, ITS’s existing volume and client base provide a ready distribution channel as access expands. Traders who already use the platform for U.S. and regional securities can add the event contracts alongside those holdings once eligibility opens more broadly.

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PolyPunter Staff

The PolyPunter staff works tirelessly to bring you the latest and most insightful news, information, and tips on the fast-growing economic, financial, and social phenomenon that is prediction markets.