How Professional Traders Hedge Prediction Market Positions
Prediction markets have moved from niche curiosity to serious trading venues and with real money on the line, risk management…
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Best Times to Enter Prediction Markets for Maximum Value
If you’ve ever watched the odds on an election, a sports final, or an economic forecast swing wildly in a…
Reading the Fine Print: Prediction Market Resolution Rules Criteria
What Are Resolution Criteria? Resolution criteria are the exact rules that determine how a prediction market settles — who decides…
Fractional Kelly Betting for Prediction Markets: A Practical Sizing Guide
Finding an edge is only half the job. The other half is deciding how much to actually bet — and…
How to Build a Base Rate Before You Bet on Any Prediction Market
Before you ever look at what a prediction market is pricing, you need your own number to compare it against….
Are Prediction Markets More Accurate Than Polls?
Election polling, economic polling, and public opinion polling have been around for decades, and have defined our outlook on elections,…
How I Find Mispriced Prediction Markets
If you’ve spent any time trading on Polymarket or Kalshi, you already know the pitch: prediction markets are supposed to…
Major Escalation: Arizona Files Criminal Charges Against Kalshi
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed 20 criminal misdemeanor charges against Kalshi, marking the first prosecution of its kind against a major prediction market for unlicensed sports and election wagering.