We’ve had a general idea that insider trading has occurred around recent U.S. military conflicts and prediction market contracts; now we have a sharper understanding of just how wide this illegal activity has been.
Fresh research is shining a harsh light on patterns that look far too perfect to ignore. On Thursday, the Anti-Corruption Data Collective released findings showing that more than 150 wallets on Polymarket International appear to have traded using nonpublic U.S. military information. These accounts, labeled “Orcas,” posted an average win rate of 97.2% on long-shot military and defense markets while generating roughly $8 million in combined profits. The report, first detailed by Reuters, raises urgent questions about how confidential signals might leak onto public blockchains and then spread even further.
Researchers at the nonprofit collective spent months combing through every settled market on the platform through May 5. They focused on long-shot wagers: those totaling at least $2,500, placed within an hour, on outcomes with Yes odds of 35% or lower. From that pool, they identified 556 wallets that behaved in a strikingly selective way. These Orcas typically opened accounts, placed highly successful niche bets where insiders would hold a clear edge, and then often cashed out and vanished. Among them, 152 focused on military and defense contracts, delivering results that make random chance highly unlikely.
The concentration stands out sharply against broader platform data. Earlier ACDC analysis already showed long-shot military and defense bets succeeding at roughly a 52% rate, far above the overall average of near 14%. The latest study identifies the most precise traders and tracks their timing, revealing that Orca wallets frequently moved first in response to major military events.
How the Orca Pattern Emerged from the Data
ACDC defined Orcas by their narrow focus and high hit rate on long-shot outcomes. These wallets rarely scattered bets across dozens of topics. Instead, they concentrated on a narrow handful of sensitive markets and walked away with consistent gains. Dozens of the 152 military-linked accounts had never surfaced in earlier media reports, meaning they operated quietly while stacking profits.
The group stresses that Orca-style behavior can sometimes stem from luck or specialized public knowledge, so the results are not meant to be undeniable. Still, the military focus remains difficult to dismiss. Examining the sequence of trades shows another layer: larger “Whale” accounts and bots routinely followed the initial Orca positions, amplifying the original signal within hours.
Before the June 2025 “Midnight Hammer” strikes related to Iran, an Orca wager appeared well ahead of public action. A bot quickly added $200,000, and a Whale followed with $100,000, both mirroring the same outcome and with substantial buys. Similar copycat flows appeared ahead of similar military operations. Researchers monitoring the blockchain can see these patterns form in real time, turning isolated moves into larger waves of capital. The blockchain provides fully transparent and indelible wallet accounting. Only the true identities behind the wallets are unseeable.
Polymarket has stated that its systems monitor for suspicious activity and have referred dozens of wallets to authorities for suspected insider trading. Spokespeople for Polymarket did not respond to specific questions about these new findings. The Department of Defense declined comment on intelligence matters or third-party research. This lack of official comment doesn’t impede the CFTC’s investigations or, if needed, DOJ referrals for prosecution.
Copycat Flows Turn Private Edges into Public Signals
The most alarming element may not be the original Orca trades themselves. Instead, the speed at which other capital piles in transforms a quiet informational advantage into a broadcast. Whales and bots monitoring the chain can scale positions far beyond the initial stake, effectively advertising the direction of potential insider knowledge to anyone watching. These aren’t criminals; they are traders trying to exploit criminals’ signals.
ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi put the risk plainly in comments accompanying the full research report: most people underestimate how observable these unusual moves are. Foreign intelligence services almost certainly track the same data streams. When an Orca wallet lights up a military market, the resulting surge in volume can serve as an early warning to any sophisticated actor with access to the blockchain.
This dynamic sits at the heart of national security concerns. Profiting from confidential government information already violates the law in most cases. Amplifying those signals through open markets isn’t illegal per se, but it multiplies their exposure. Copycat trading remains legal on its face, yet the report shows how it can convert private edges into wider information leakage.
A small insider trading position itself isn’t likely to move an entire market. Insider traders often keep their positions limited to avoid drawing undue attention. But the copycat whales are free to go wild with their stakes.
Earlier cases already illustrated the stakes. In April, authorities charged U.S. Army Special Forces Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified details about a Venezuela-related operation to generate more than $400,000 in profits. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty. His slower approach to position-building kept him outside the strict Orca definition, yet the episode proved that military personnel have already tested these waters.
Prior Precedents and Growing Scrutiny
The Van Dyke case was not an isolated anomaly. Separate investigations previously identified clusters of linked wallets that generated millions of dollars on Iran-related military outcomes, with win rates near 98%. Those accounts timed bets to specific operational milestones that ordinary public information could not have predicted with such precision.
ACDC’s latest Orca classification requires both a success threshold above 75% and a narrow market focus. The result captures the most extreme outliers while still surfacing many previously unnoticed wallets.
Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has brought charges in multiple related matters and signaled it will continue to aggressively police misconduct. A commission spokesperson declined to comment specifically on the new report but reiterated the agency’s commitment to strict oversight of market integrity. Lawmakers have also introduced measures aimed at curbing risks to national security. Platforms operating under federal oversight face increasing pressure to demonstrate effective surveillance, prevention, and enforcement to remain certified.
Polymarket emphasizes that its public ledger enables greater scrutiny than traditional venues. Critics counter that the same transparency can be exploited by anyone capable of parsing the data in real time. The answer, as usual, is likely somewhere in the middle.
What the Findings Demand Next
The ACDC concludes that relying solely on after-the-fact enforcement leaves too much room for damage, often irreversible. Markets where a small circle of people control outcomes—and where nonpublic information carries outsized value—present structural vulnerabilities that ordinary monitoring struggles to close. The group argues that identity verification (KYC) alone will not solve the problem. Withholding payouts on flagged trades pending review could help, yet certain high-risk categories may require outright restrictions if the informational asymmetry remains too extreme.
Traders who follow these markets closely are already adjusting their own monitoring routines. Watching for sudden Orca-style entries and the subsequent Whale or bot responses has become a practical tactic for those seeking early signals. At the same time, the same tactics remain available to adversarial actors.
The timing of the report adds weight. It arrives as overall media and legislative scrutiny of event contracts intensifies and as platforms expand institutional access. Clearer rules around surveillance, identity standards, and restricted market types will likely shape the next phase of development.
For now, the ACDC data stands as a concrete warning. One hundred fifty-two wallets achieved near-perfect results on long-shot military outcomes while harvesting millions in proceeds. Copycat capital then greatly magnified those moves for anyone carefully watching the chain. The combination creates a live “channel” that can convert private knowledge into public, tradable information at remarkable speed. Whether regulators respond with tighter identity rules, withheld payouts, or category bans remains to be decided. Closing that gap will require more than marginal fixes.
References
- Reuters exclusive report on ACDC Polymarket findings
- Anti-Corruption Data Collective full research report
- CryptoBriefing coverage of the 152 Orca wallets
- Crypto Times summary of ACDC military wallet analysis
- Reuters social media announcement of the exclusive
- IBTimes report on the $8 million in collective profits
- YouTube breakdown of the Gannon Ken Van Dyke indictment
- 60 Minutes short on long-shot military success rates
- CBS News 60 Minutes transcript on military outcome trades
- Business Insider account of the Van Dyke charges
- Politico reporting on the soldier’s arrest
- CoinDesk analysis of elevated military long-shot rates
- Benzinga summary of renewed scrutiny
- Seeking Alpha note on ACDC’s call for investigation
- Heise online coverage of the Orca classification
