As of March 1, 2026, these are the top 10 markets by the past 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket.
General advice: Traders should monitor real-time volume for entry signals, as sudden surges often precede resolutions and/or major breaking news that all but guarantees outcomes. Geopolitical and sports markets, in particular, show volatility tied to external events like matches or policy announcements. Opportunities abound for informed positions. Reasons for changes include media coverage, expert analyses, and crowd wisdom adjustments. Use this data to refine your portfolio—consider diversifying across categories to mitigate risks from single-event dependencies.
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
- Fed decision in March?
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- US next strikes Iran on…?
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets February 27 – March 6, 2026?
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
This prediction market focuses on who will secure and accept the Democratic nomination for the 2028 presidential election. Leading options include Gavin Newsom at 25.3¢, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8.8¢, Kamala Harris at 5.7¢, Jon Ossoff at 4.3¢, and Josh Shapiro at 4.1¢, reflecting implied probabilities. Prices have shown stability over the past 24 hours amid ongoing trader assessments. Factors influencing these odds may involve perceptions of candidate viability, political developments, and collective trader sentiment. Betting options span various politicians, allowing traders to position on frontrunners or underdogs without favoring any, as market dynamics adjust to new information.
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The market predicts the Republican nominee for the 2028 presidential race, with shares trading on acceptance of the nomination. Top contracts feature J.D. Vance at 41.2¢, Yes, Marco Rubio at 17.5¢ Yes, Ron DeSantis at 2.5¢ Yes, Donald Trump at 2.4¢ Yes, and Donald Trump Jr. at 2.2¢ Yes. No notable price shifts occurred in the last 24 hours. Drivers could include candidate endorsements, public statements, and speculated insider activity affecting order flow.
Presidential Election Winner 2028
This market gauges the winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election through crowd-sourced probabilities across multiple candidates. Leading shares are JD Vance at 21.5¢, Gavin Newsom at 17.6¢, Marco Rubio at 8.3¢, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 6.4¢, and Kamala Harris at 3.6¢. Prices remained steady over the past 24 hours. Influencing elements might encompass candidate charisma, historical trends for incumbents, and trader responses to emerging news. Various betting options allow positions on diverse outcomes, enabling objective trading on cross-party frontrunners without bias toward any specific result.
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Traders predict Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chair by the end of 2026 in this multi-outcome market. Key options include Kevin Warsh at 93.5¢, Judy Shelton at 4.0¢, No one nominated before 2027 at 0.7¢, Stephen Miran at 0.6¢, and Michelle Bowman at 0.5¢. No price fluctuations were reported in the recent 24 hours. Potential drivers involve nominee loyalty assessments, age considerations, and broader geopolitical impacts. Betting spans numerous candidates and a no-nomination scenario, offering agnostic choices for traders navigating economic policy speculations.
Fed decision in March?
The market forecasts the Federal Reserve’s interest rate adjustment in March, based on the target funds range. Primary contracts are No change at 96.4¢, 25 bps decrease at 2.7¢, 50+ bps decrease at 0.6¢, and 25+ bps increase at 0.4¢. Prices held firm over the last 24 hours. Driving forces may include inflation spikes from geopolitical tensions, oil price surges, and economic speculation. Options cover rate stability, cuts, or hikes, allowing traders to bet across scenarios impartially as market probabilities evolve with global events.
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
This binary market resolves on whether Ali Khamenei was removed from Iran’s Supreme Leader position by February 28, 2026. It stands at Yes 100¢ and No 0¢, indicating resolution to Yes. Prices stabilized at these levels in the past 24 hours following confirmation. Factors include official announcements of his death, state media reports, and debates on removal definitions. Traders could have positioned on Yes for potential ousting or No for continuity, with the market reflecting rapid adjustments to credible news without endorsing either outcome.
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
A binary prediction on Ali Khamenei’s removal as Iran’s Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026, currently at Yes 100¢ and No 0¢ post-resolution. No price movements noted in the last 24 hours. Influences encompass reports of his killing, official step-down statements, and resolution disputes over timing. Betting options included Yes for anticipated change or No for sustained leadership, providing neutral avenues for traders to engage based on geopolitical updates and collective insights.
US next strikes Iran on…?
The market predicts the date of the next U.S. strike on Iranian targets up to February 28, 2026. Top options are February 28 at 99.7¢, February 27 at 0.4¢, February 26 at 0.1¢, with review variants mirroring these. Prices were stable over the past 24 hours. Drivers involve timing disputes from explosion reports, news confirmations, and uncertainty resolutions. Various date-based contracts offer impartial betting on potential strike timelines, adapting to real-time event validations.
Venezuela leader by the end of 2026?
This multi-outcome market anticipates Venezuela’s head of state on December 31, 2026. Leading shares: Delcy Rodríguez at 64¢, María Corina Machado at 13¢, Nicolás Maduro at 11.2¢, Edmundo González at 3.7¢, and Diosdado Cabello Rondón at 2¢. No recent 24-hour changes reported. Factors may include dissident efforts, military dynamics, and UN leadership listings. Traders can select from numerous candidates, enabling objective positions on leadership transitions without preference for any specific figure.
Elon Musk # tweets February 27 – March 6, 2026?
The market forecasts the number of tweets by Elon Musk from February 27 to March 6, 2026, in 20-tweet bins. Top options: 220-239 at 14.1¢, 200-219 at 12.2¢, 240-259 at 11.6¢, 280-299 at 11¢, and 260-279 at 9.1¢. Prices stayed consistent in the past 24 hours. Influences stem from traders’ expectations of Musk’s activity patterns and real-time monitoring. Betting spans various count ranges, offering unbiased opportunities to predict social media engagement levels.
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Reminder, engaging in prediction markets can be highly addictive, similar to gambling, potentially leading to financial loss, emotional distress, and compulsive behavior. Bet responsibly, set limits, and seek professional help by calling 1-800-MY-RESET if you notice if you experience signs of addiction, such as chasing losses or neglecting responsibilities.
