Prediction markets delivered a stunning call as traders poured over $25 million into Kentucky’s GOP primary, correctly forecasting Ed Gallrein’s decisive upset over incumbent Thomas Massie in a race that doubled turnout.
President Donald Trump’s explosive endorsement has rocketed Ken Paxton to a 94% favorite in the Texas GOP Senate runoff, triggering an immediate surge in prediction market odds ahead of the May 26 vote.
Keir Starmer prediction market odds have surged to 69% for a June 30 exit after Reform UK’s dramatic local election victories triggered fresh Labour leadership turmoil and intense calls for the prime minister to resign.
With the 2026 Senate hanging in a razor-sharp 50-50 dead heat on major prediction markets, traders are pouring millions into contracts that could reshape Congress. Six months out, every poll and policy twist now moves the needle.
Bettors are flooding Polymarket and Kalshi with over $100,000 on Oregon’s Republican gubernatorial primary, where Christine Drazan emerges as the clear frontrunner despite internal polls favoring Ed Diehl.
US Senate candidate Mark Moran deliberately placed a $100 insider bet on his own Kalshi market, openly admitting he wanted to get caught in a provocative challenge to platform rules and political norms.
Prediction markets delivered a brutal reset in the 2026 California gubernatorial race after Swalwell’s exit. Becerra and Steyer now dominate odds with $38 million in trader conviction, crushing traditional polls.
High-stakes trading surges on the 2028 presidential election winner market as JD Vance clings to a narrow lead while Gavin Newsom and Marco Rubio close in fast, reshaping the odds in real time.
Eric Swalwell resigned from Congress on April 13, 2026, amid sexual misconduct allegations. Prediction markets reacted instantly, pushing the “out by May 31” contract to 100% probability within minutes.
Democrats now trade at 85% odds of flipping House control in the 2026 midterms on prediction markets, as traders pour millions into contracts signaling a major power shift.
