Two brand-new wallets just put hard numbers on a bill that lobbyists still describe as close. On Polymarket, VelvetNova27 spent $818,130 buying “No” shares on whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 is signed by December 31. KatsuManager87 followed with about $676,800. Combined, the tickets approach $1.5 million, and the contract now prices 2026 enactment near 14-15%.
That print used to look nothing like this. Early in the year, the same market flashed above 80% for a presidential signature. Missed recesses, ethics fights, and a midterm calendar then pulled the price down. The whale fills did not invent the slump. They did put a dollar figure on how little conviction remains that H.R. 3633 crosses the finish line this calendar year.
The contract has drawn over $11 million in lifetime volume since January. Shares pay $1 if the bill passes into law. VelvetNova27 bought more than 1.05 million “No” shares at an average near 77.7 cents, a stack worth more than $1.05 million if 2026 expires without a law. Paper profits appeared quickly as “No” climbed toward 86 cents.
How the VelvetNova27 and KatsuManager87 Trades Hit the Tape
VelvetNova27’s position did not ease in over months. The profile was created in August, lists only this market, and hit just before 3 a.m. Eastern on August 24, when “No” still sat near 77%. Predictbook said the position was already up about $82,078 as the book continued to slide.
On-chain lots tied to wallet 0xf53e7cc2894cba22dcdc40de936513a502ef16e3 show two clips near $599,400 and $226,000 at 78 cents and 77 cents, matching the 1.05 million-share count. Market rules are blunt. “Yes” requires both chambers and a presidential signature by 11:59 p.m. ET on December 31. Anything short of that is “No.”
KatsuManager87 arrived the next session. Predictbook flagged three “No” tickets of $350,291, $104,458, and $222,068 at 83 to 85 cents. That account also joined in August and lists only the CLARITY contract, later holding about 809,296 “No” shares.
No public filing links the handles to a single desk. The size of the trade alone is not proof of coordination or a leak. Still, two fresh profiles committing nearly $1.5 million in under 48 hours made a quiet policy market suddenly loud.
Why CLARITY Act Passage Odds Fell From 80% to 14%
The House already passed H.R. 3633 by a vote of 294–134 in July 2025. The Senate Banking Committee later advanced companion text 15–9 in May. After that, the clock started eating the bill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune skipped a pre-recess cloture filing in early August, and traders shoved any likely passage probability into 2027.
Kalshi’s “before January 1, 2027” crypto-structure contract slipped from 30 cents toward 22 cents. Polymarket’s 2026 “Yes” print fell 8.5 points on the skipped-filing day. Money did not vanish. It walked down the calendar toward later strikes, indicating a more likely market belief the bill will pass at some point in the future, just not in 2026.
Ethics language remains the knot. Senate Democrats have called conflict-of-interest text too weak given the President’s reported crypto income. Community bankers have also warned that stablecoin yield rules could pull deposits. Those fights rarely dominate a single news cycle. They do keep a market from repricing higher after every “this week is the week” briefing.
As of now, the bill has never received a vote on the Senate floor. Industry groups keep asking for a signature, and Donald Trump has urged lawmakers to finish. That pressure has not flipped the book.
What the September 15 Senate Cloture Vote Actually Decides
The next hard date is cloture on the motion to proceed, set to ripen September 15. Cutting off debate takes 60 votes. With 53 Republicans, every GOP vote still leaves a seven-vote hole for Democrats or independents to fill.
Cloture is a gate, not a ribbon-cutting. A “yes” only starts floor debate. The chambers would still need identical text, and the President would still need to sign before year-end for Polymarket “Yes” to pay. That is a long course for a market already trading “No” in the mid-80s.
But hurdles remain: mid-September procedural test, leftover fights over ethics, yields, and illicit-finance language, and almost no spare days before campaign season. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has said existing agency tools can cover some crypto steps if Congress stalls. That fallback does not rescue a contract that requires a signed Act bearing the H.R. 3633 designation.
References
- CCN: New Polymarket Wallet Bets $818K Against CLARITY Act
- Finbold: New wallet bets over $800k on the Clarity Act
- FinanceFeeds: Whales bet nearly $1.5M against passage
- iGamingToday: Passage odds fall to 14%
- Business Insider: Traders betting against the Clarity Act
- CCN on X: $818,130 ticket and 14% odds
- Polymarket: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
- PolyInsider: Largest CLARITY Act trades
- The Defiant: Odds shift into 2027 after skipped cloture
- CryptoSlate: September 15 cloture date
- crypto.news: CLARITY Act status briefing
- News 9: Senate returns with Clarity Act on the calendar
- YouTube: Will the Clarity Act Pass in September? (Thinking Crypto)
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