As of March 7, 2026, these are the top 10 markets by the past 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket.
General advice: Traders should monitor real-time volume for entry signals, as sudden surges often precede resolutions and/or major breaking news that all but guarantees outcomes. Geopolitical and sports markets, in particular, exhibit volatility tied to external events such as matches or policy announcements. Opportunities abound for informed positions. Reasons for changes include media coverage, expert analyses, and crowd wisdom adjustments. Use this data to refine your portfolio—consider diversifying across categories to mitigate risks from single-event dependencies.
- Next Supreme Leader of Iran
- Will Crude Oil Hit $100 by the End of March?
- Will the Iranian Regime Fall by June 2026?
- Will US Forces Enter Iran by March 7?
- Will Another Country Strike Iran by March 31?
- Fed Rate Decision in March
- What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in March?
- 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
- Will Judy Shelton Be Confirmed as Fed Chair?
- Will the Strait of Hormuz Be Closed by March 31?
Next Supreme Leader of Iran
This event market centers on the succession of Iran’s current Supreme Leader, drawing intense interest amid regional instability. Leading contract options feature Mojtaba Khamenei at 42.6% probability, Ebrahim Raisi at 20%, and Ali Larijani at 15%, with an “Other” category at 22.4%. Over the past 24 hours, Mojtaba’s odds rose by 5%, while Raisi’s dipped 3%, reflecting shifts possibly tied to reports of internal dynamics and external military actions. Traders can engage through yes/no contracts on individual candidates or broader pools, allowing positions on various succession scenarios. Market prices may be influenced by ongoing conflict updates, leadership health speculations, and diplomatic signals, creating opportunities for diverse betting strategies in this volatile arena.
Will Crude Oil Hit $100 by the End of March?
Focused on commodity price thresholds, this market tracks whether crude oil will surpass $100 per barrel by March’s close, fueled by supply disruptions. Key options include “Yes” at 63.5% and “No” at 36.5%, with recent trading showing a 7% uptick in yes contracts amid escalating tensions. The past day saw volume spikes coinciding with news of strikes affecting production, potentially driving bullish sentiment. Participants can bet on the yes outcome if they anticipate further interruptions, or on the no outcome if they expect stabilization. Factors such as global demand fluctuations, inventory reports, and resolution timelines could sway prices, offering balanced options for traders monitoring energy-sector developments in real time.
Will the Iranian Regime Fall by June 2026?
This market evaluates the stability of Iran’s governing regime, with resolution by mid-2026 based on official changes or collapses. Primary contracts are “Yes” at 59% and “No” at 41%, experiencing a 4% swing toward yes in the last 24 hours as conflict intensifies. Recent market movements align with reports of internal unrest and external pressures, boosting trading activity. Bettors can choose yes for scenarios involving overthrow or significant reform, or no for continuity amid challenges. Driving elements include military outcomes, shifts in public sentiment, and international interventions, providing neutral avenues for positioning on long-term geopolitical transformations.
Will US Forces Enter Iran by March 7?
Assessing immediate military escalations, this short-term market resolves on whether US troops cross into Iran by the specified date. Options stand at “Yes” at 2.3% and “No” at 97.7%, with minimal recent changes but steady volume from watchful traders. The low yes probability reflects current diplomatic stances, though spikes could occur with breaking news. Traders might opt for yes contracts if expecting rapid developments, or for no contracts for de-escalation bets. Influences such as policy announcements, alliance dynamics, and incident reports could alter odds, enabling objective engagements across risk appetites in this fast-paced event.
Will Another Country Strike Iran by March 31?
This market probes potential expansions in regional conflicts, betting on strikes from additional nations against Iran by month’s end. Leading bets are “Yes” at 57.5% and “No” at 42.5%, up 6% for yes over 24 hours amid alliance speculations. Volume has risen with news of coordinated actions, suggesting heightened trader interest. Options allow yes positions for those foreseeing broader involvement or no for limited engagements. Key drivers encompass diplomatic breakdowns, security alliances, and retaliation cycles, offering varied betting options for navigating uncertain international relations.
Fed Rate Decision in March
Centered on monetary policy, this market anticipates the Federal Reserve’s interest rate adjustment at the upcoming meeting. Contracts include “Cut 25 bps” at 45%, “Hold” at 30%, and “Cut 50 bps” at 25%, with a 3% shift toward larger cuts recently due to economic indicators. Trading has intensified following data releases, influencing probability adjustments. Participants can select from multiple rate outcomes, depending on their views on inflation trends or growth concerns. Market movements may stem from employment figures, inflation reports, and global events, presenting impartial opportunities for financial forecasting engagements.
What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in March?
This cryptocurrency-focused market bins potential price ranges for Bitcoin by month’s end, attracting volatility seekers. Top options: “$100,000 – $110,000” at 35%, “$90,000 – $100,000” at 28%, and “Above $110,000” at 20%, with a 4% increase in higher brackets over 24 hours. Recent crypto rallies and geopolitical ties have driven volume upward. Traders can bet on specific ranges or outliers, accommodating bullish or bearish outlooks. Influences like regulatory news, adoption metrics, and macro risks shape prices, offering diverse strategies in this high-liquidity digital asset arena.
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Projecting the champion of the upcoming global soccer tournament, this sports market spans international teams. Leading contenders: Spain at 15%, Brazil at 12%, and France at 10%, with minor adjustments recently as qualifiers progress. Volume remains robust due to fan engagement and early positioning. Bettors can back favorites like Spain for strong form or underdogs for upset potential. Drivers include player injuries, team performances, and draw outcomes, enabling objective bets across a spectrum of soccer prediction options in this anticipated event.
Will Judy Shelton Be Confirmed as Fed Chair?
This nomination market gauges the likelihood of Judy Shelton’s appointment as Federal Reserve Chair. Contracts: “Yes” at 3.2% and “No” at 96.8%, stable over the past day but with consistent interest from policy watchers. Recent congressional updates have sustained trading without major shifts. Options permit yes bets for confirmation supporters or no for skeptics on political hurdles. Factors such as nomination timelines, hearings, and economic contexts shape the odds, offering balanced avenues for engaging with central banking leadership prospects.
Will the Strait of Hormuz Be Closed by March 31?
Examining critical trade route disruptions, this market bets on the closure of a key waterway amid conflicts. Options: “Yes” at 48% and “No” at 52%, with a 5% tilt toward yes in recent hours following naval reports. Volume has climbed amid escalating tensions, drawing strategic traders. Bettors might choose yes for blockade scenarios or no for open passage maintenance. Influences include military maneuvers, international responses, and energy flow concerns, offering neutral betting positions in assessing supply chain vulnerabilities.
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Reminder, engaging in prediction markets can be highly addictive, similar to gambling, potentially leading to financial loss, emotional distress, and compulsive behavior. Bet responsibly, set limits, and seek professional help by calling 1-800-MY-RESET if you notice if you experience signs of addiction, such as chasing losses or neglecting responsibilities.
