The pace of Kalshi’s private investor valuation growth is truly something to behold. That’s notable for a service provider, rather than a company with a protected patent on groundbreaking technology. Technically, anybody can start their own “Kalshi”, as many competitors are now attempting, provided they have startup money for the legal and administrative basics of entering the prediction platform market.
Kalshi is pursuing a new private raise that would value the company at $40 billion. Reporting this week says it is seeking at least $750 million at this new valuation, nearly double the $22 billion mark set in its Coatue-led Series F in May.
The company is already back in the market only months after closing $1 billion. It’s rumored that Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management have been in advanced talks, with the final amount potentially exceeding $750 million. Sequoia is already an investor and has a board presence. Wellington would be a new traditional-asset-manager name on Kalshi’s cap table.
How the $40 Billion Valuation Talks Took Shape
The $40 billion figure first surfaced in June. That chatter followed a $1 billion Series F led by Coatue, with Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest also in the round.
May’s price already doubled a December 2025 valuation of $11 billion and sat far above the roughly $5 billion level from early 2025.
Kalshi has declined to comment on the new $40 billion mark. CEO Tarek Mansour has said an IPO is under discussion for 2027, not this year. A proposed valuation price is not a signed term sheet, and some private-market marks still trail the $40 billion headline. So we’ll see how it plays out eventually.
In its Series F announcement, Kalshi said annualized contract volume had more than tripled to $178 billion in six months, while institutional trading volume rose 800%.
Where the $14.1 Billion in Monthly Kalshi Trading Volume Is Coming From
More than 80% of Kalshi’s activity is tied to sports events. That mix is powering tremendous growth while also drawing state-level legal challenges.
Weekly data shows the same concentration. Combined volume across Kalshi and Polymarket Global hit $14.10 billion in the week ending September 13, up 9.3% from $12.90 billion. Kalshi booked $12.98 billion of that total, a 92.1% share. NFL kickoff, tennis, and esports did most of the heavy lifting.
Through September 13, month-to-date contract volume had already reached $23.45 billion, 53.4% above the same stretch in August. Combo contracts, the multi-leg products that behave just like parlays, inflate face-value totals even when cash at risk is smaller. Price-weighted measures are lower, yet they still show a booming business running in the tens of billions in notional volume.
For traders, the more practical point is liquidity. Kalshi is clearing the large majority of measurable U.S. flow. That gives it a large leg up on its competitors and signals a likely continuation of its market dominance. Biggest is best, so biggest keeps getting bigger.
What Tarek Mansour Is Signaling on Listing Plans and New Contracts
Mansour has avoided promising a 2026 listing. On CNBC’s Squawk Box in June, he said the company was “basically thinking about” an IPO while ruling out this year. That CNBC interview remains one of the clearest public discussions of regulation, surveillance, and new index products.
He has also recast sports as an on-ramp. Later comments put sports closer to two-thirds of volume than the 95% share seen a year earlier, with football and (World Cup) soccer pulling in traders who later move into economics, crypto, and policy contracts. How fast that mix shifts will shape the legal fight over whether sports-heavy books belong under gambling statutes.
Kalshi product plans keep widening. Kalshi has been filing to list single-stock perpetual-style contracts tied to Tesla, Apple, and Nvidia, and commodities books recently cleared more than $400 million in a month. Those filings show the raise is meant to fund a broader risk venue, not only weekend sports wagering flow.
Why the Kalshi Funding Round Matters for Traders
A larger raise usually means more contracts, tighter markets, and heavier promotion into football season. Prior capital already went toward block trading and institutional broker tools. Another $750 million-plus would extend that push while the NFL calendar ramps up. NFL sports event contracts are the big prize this Fall.
The competitive gap is recent but wide. Kalshi only overtook Polymarket on monthly taker volume in April, then pulled away through summer sports. The failed Clarity Act procedural vote did little to change Kalshi’s pitch, because it already operates as a CFTC-designated contract market approved in 2021, giving it an early-mover advantage in this still-nascent industry.
Valuation risk remains. An eightfold jump in about 18 months invites questions about sports concentration and how much of the notional total is combo face value. Growth funds appear willing to take that risk if weekly volumes stay above $10 billion and institutional desks keep adding to the promise of future scale.
The next few weeks will show whether the new $40 billion mark materializes. Until then, the actual signal is $14.1 billion in 30-day volume and a 92.1% weekly share against its closest peer. Either way, it’s a super-strong fundamental.
References
- The Block, “Kalshi in talks to raise funds at $40 billion valuation: FT”
- CoinDesk, Sequoia and Wellington talks
- Bitcoin.com News, volume and U.S. share
- Bloomberg, Series F at $22 billion
- TechCrunch, May valuation and revenue
- Business Wire, Series F announcement
- Odaily, $750 million raise and $14.1 billion volume
- DeFi Rate, weekly volume report
- CNBC interview with Tarek Mansour
- YouTube interview with Tarek Mansour
